economics research topics in ethiopia

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BAHIR DAR UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS ECONOMICS PROGRAM EXPORT PREFORMANCE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ETHIOPIA

AI-generated Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between export performance and economic growth in Ethiopia from 1970 to 2012, employing a co-integration and Granger causality approach. It highlights the effects of various economic factors, including GDP, consumption, investments, and government expenditures, on export performance. The findings suggest that improving support for exporters through financial mechanisms can enhance competitive advantage in the global market, ultimately fostering better economic growth.

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Abdella Mohammed Ahmed (M.Sc.), 2024

More than 80 percent of the population in Ethiopia lives in rural areas and their main source of income is agriculture. Agriculture accounts for 45 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employs 85 percent of the labour force.Export of agricultural products constitutes 86 percent of the total foreign exchange earnings. The country has taken different measures to diversify and increase the contribution of the export sector to economic growth such as; export trade duty incentive scheme, export credit guarantee scheme and foreign exchange retention scheme to those wholly engaged in supplying their products to foreign markets. Despite the incentives taken by the country, the export sector has depended on a few agricultural products mainly coffee, oil seeds and pulses which are characterized by fluctuations in quantity, price and have low competitiveness on the world market. The objective of the study was to assess the trend and impact of agricultural (coffee, oilseed and pulses) exports on economic growth of Ethiopia over the last forty years by looking at: the existence of long run relationship between agricultural export and economic growth; the speed of adjustment in the long run and the existence of causality between the agricultural export and economic growth. The analysis was done using co-integration model, Error correction model and Granger causality model. The findings of the study showed that Coffee export and oilseeds export have a positive and significant relationship with economic growth. While, pulses export was found to have negative and insignificant effect on economic growth in short run and positive but insignificant in the long run. On the other hand the causality relationship found that there is bi-directional relationship between coffee export, oilseed export and economic growth whereas unidirectional relationship was found between pulses export and economic growth. Based on the findings, it is recommended that policies aimed at increasing the productivity and quality of these cash crops should be implemented. Also additional value should be added to them before exporting. Correspondingly, there is also a need to devote resources on the production of non-export goods in order to increase exports since they have bi-directional relationship. When this is done, it will lead to a higher rate of economic growth in Ethiopia.

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International journal of research in agronomy, 2021

Ethiopia is heavily dependent on its agricultural sector, which has suffered from recurrent droughts. Rapid population growth, change of arable land to urban expansion, climate change, unemployment, waterlogging in wetland areas, salinity in arid and semi-arid, acidity in high rainfall areas, and depletion of natural resources are causing food shortages. Productivity performance in the agriculture sector is critical to improvement in overall economic well-being. Therefore, this article focused to reviewing the country's current production and productivity of agricultural challenges and opportunities. In addition to that, the status of the agricultural production of the country were reviewed. The seminar mainly concentrated on land degradation and deforestation, land fragmentation, the shortage of farmland, climate change, unevenly distributed construction and urbanization, lack of integration among stakeholders, political instabilities, and its prospects. Ethiopia has great opportunities, such as commercial farming investments in cereals, cotton, fruit, vegetables, and ornamental plants. The country has also many opportunities in the areas of livestock production. However, Ethiopia's current fruit, vegetable, and livestock production for export are very limited.

International Journal of Research Studies in Agricultural Sciences, 2018

Agriculture is considered as a key sector in Sub Saharan Africa since almost all rural households depend directly or indirectly on agriculture. It plays pivotal roles in countries with a good agro ecological condition, dynamic and growing national economies (Diao, et al., 2010).The economic development is influenced dominantly by the prospects of the agricultural sector in most of sub Saharan African countries. Since it play a significant role through its high share of GDP and employment, the sector prioritized in various development agenda in most of the countries in the region(OECD/FAO, 2016).

The objective of this study was to examine the impact of agricultural export performance on economic growth of Ethiopia. The study employed both descriptive analysis and econometric technique. In particular, the study sets out to assess the trend of agricultural export and economic growth in Ethiopia using yearly time series data covering from 1989 to 2018 years. The dependent variable is the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country. Explanatory variables namely agricultural export values (AEX), gross capital formation (GCF), gross labour force (GLF) real exchange rate (RER), and imports (IM) were regressed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Granger causality method was used to test the direction of causality between agricultural export and economic growth. The long run results obtained indicated that agricultural export has positive and significant effect on economic growth of Ethiopia. In the short run, agricultural export have no significant effect on economic growth. The granger causality shows uni-directional relationship between agricultural export and economic growth. The Recommendation from the results of the study was that to improve the productivity and quality of agricultural export commodities, the government should adopt modern machines and technology, provision of adequate inputs, availability of credit, improved marketing mechanism as well as maintain Agro based industries to export value added goods rather than raw material to increase foreign exchange earning of country.

Improving agricultural productivity, agricultural commercialization and improving the livelihoods of the population are the main challenges in the Sub-Saharan Africa region where the majority of the population are poor and live in rural areas. Several factors including lack of improved farming practices, poor infrastructure, low level of market integration to the world market and within countries, climate change, and inadequate policy support restrained the performance of the agricultural sector in the region. This thesis consists of four chapters, three empirical and one theoretical chapter. Each of the empirical chapters deals with selected topics pertinent to the agriculture sector in Ethiopia. The theoretical chapter reviews the agricultural policies adopted by the existing government and implemented over the past two decades. After the introductory chapter, the second chapter analyzes the impacts of climate change on crop yields and yield vari-ability in Ethiopia. The impacts o...

The Ethiopian export sector has depended on few agricultural products like coffee (29.5%), oil seeds (14.9%), pulses (9.5%), Chat (9.3%), and cut flowers (8%). The total export earnings were declined over time. This, the aim of this term paper is to study the trend and impact of agricultural export on economic growth in Ethiopia. The study was analyzed through Engel granger co-integration test and causality test by employed secondary time series data from 1997-2018. The Engel granger co-integration test result showed that there is no long run relationship between agricultural export and economic growth. The Granger Causality test result revealed that there is no evidence of Granger causal relationship between agricultural export and economic growth implying neither export led growth nor growth driven agricultural export is valid in the context of Ethiopia. Therefore the government should make an effort to bring a structural change from export of primary agricultural goods to manufacturing goods.

Agricultural production in Ethiopia is characterized by subsistence orientation, low productivity, low level of technology and inputs, lack of infrastructures and market institutions, and extremely vulnerable to rainfall variability. Productivity performance in the agriculture sector is critical to improvement in overall economic well-being in Ethiopia. Low availability of improved or hybrid seed, lack of seed multiplication capacity, low profitability and efficiency of fertilizer, lack of irrigation development, lack of transport infrastructure, inaccessibility of market and prevalence of land degradation, unfertile soil, overgrazing, deforestation and desertification are among the constraints to agricultural productivity during last period. However, in 2011 the sector grew by 9% driven by cereal production which reached a record high of 19.10 million tons in Ethiopia.

http://matjournals.in/index.php/JIMCDM/article/view/5581, 2020

The objective of this study was to examine the impact of agricultural export performance on economic growth of Ethiopia. The study employed both descriptive analysis and econometric technique. In particular, the study sets out to assess the trend of agricultural export and economic growth in Ethiopia using yearly time series data covering from 1989/90 to 2018/19 years. The dependent variable is the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country. Explanatory variables namely agricultural export values (AEX), gross capital formation (GCF), gross labour force (GLF) real exchange rate (RER), and imports (IM) were regressed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Granger causality method was used to test the direction of causality between agricultural export and economic growth. The long run results obtained indicated that agricultural export has positive and significant effect on economic growth of Ethiopia. In the short run, agricultural export have no significant effect on economic growth. The granger causality shows uni-directional relationship between agricultural export and economic growth. The Recommendation from the results of the study was that to improve the productivity and quality of agricultural export commodities, the government should adopt modern machines and technology, provision of adequate inputs, availability of credit, improved marketing mechanism as well as maintain Agro based industries to export value added goods rather than raw material to increase foreign exchange earning of country.

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The World Bank in Ethiopia

The World Bank is supporting Ethiopia to address fragility and enhance resilience by emphasizing social inclusion, institutional development, economic opportunities, job creation, and service delivery. Key priorities include supporting home-grown reforms to transition Ethiopia to a more inclusive economy where the private sector plays a significant role in growth.

With about 126.5 million people (2023), Ethiopia is the second most populous nation in Africa after Nigeria, and one of the fastest-growing economies in the region, with an estimated 7.2% growth in FY2022/23. However, it also remains one of the poorest, with a per capita gross national income of $1,020. Ethiopia aims to reach lower-middle-income status by 2025.

Ethiopia’s strong growth record has been reflected in average real growth of nearly 10% per year between 2004-18, one of the highest rates in the world, led mainly by infrastructure investments that expanded access to infrastructure, services, and supported better living standards. Notable outcomes include expanding nearby potable water access to 60 million more people, doubling electricity access, and a 64% increase in child vaccinations. Between 2004 and 2016, these advances helped reduce the national poverty rate from 39% to about 24%.

However, multiple shocks since 2018 have affected nearly all households across the country, with about 91 percent of the population either experiencing persistent droughts, floods, locust infestations, conflict, or some combination of them. At the same time, households were also affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Meanwhile, the Tigray conflict displaced over 20 million people, resulting in large humanitarian and reconstruction needs (estimated at $20 billion). At the macroeconomic level, overlapping shocks alongside structural weaknesses in Ethiopia’s state-led growth model (reflecting deep policy and regulatory distortions) contributed to slower growth, declining external competitiveness, rising inflation, and growing macroeconomic and debt vulnerabilities. As a result, living standards have deteriorated for the first time in over two decades. About 15 million people currently rely on food aid.

In line with the 2019 Home-Grown Economic Reform Agenda to shift towards a more private-sector-driven and sustainable growth, the government announced major reforms in late July 2024. This included an immediate shift to market-determined exchange rate, the removal of most current account restrictions, and the modernization of the monetary policy framework. These reforms are supported by an IMF program, World Bank Development Policy Financing, and proposed debt relief through the G20 Common Framework. Ethiopia's challenge now is to sustain and deepen these reforms to translate economic improvements into tangible benefits for people: higher incomes, more jobs, and better public services.

Development Challenges Ethiopia seeks to chart a development path that is sustainable and inclusive, in order to accelerate poverty reduction and boost shared prosperity. Significant progress in job creation, as well as improved governance, will be needed to ensure that growth is equitable across society. Achieving these objectives will require addressing key challenges including the following:

• Sustaining macroeconomic and structural reforms to reduce the state’s dominance of the economy, increasing trade integration, and expanding opportunities for private sector growth and job creation.
• Reducing the incidence of conflict, persisting throughout the country, not least as the related displacement, loss of livelihoods, and human capital (through learning and health impacts) amplifies vulnerability to climate and other shocks that Ethiopia is exposed to.
• Addressing food insecurity, which is growing due to adverse weather events, heavy reliance on rainfed agriculture, locust invasion, conflict, and global conditions leading to high inflation of food prices. Frequent severe weather events alongside long-term impacts of climate change undermine agriculture and pastoral livelihoods as well as food security. The 2022 drought, the worst in forty years, severely affected millions in the southern and eastern parts of the country. Overall, more than 20 million people faced severe food insecurity in 2023.
• Improving human capital. Ethiopia’s Human Capital Index is at a low 0.38 (2020) which means that a child born in Ethiopia today will achieve only 38% of their development potential. This is lower than the average for the Sub-Saharan Africa region but slightly higher than the average for low-income countries. Learning poverty stands at 90% and 37% of children under 5 years of age are stunted.
• Generating good jobs. The country’s growing workforce (with roughly 2 million persons reaching working age per year) puts pressure on the absorption capacity of the labor market, necessitates improving current jobs, while creating sufficient new jobs.

In February 2024, the  Ethiopia Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDR)  was released, sharing findings regarding the increasing impact of climate change that are threatening Ethiopia’s development prospects. The report notes that annual average losses to gross domestic product (GDP) are expected to range between 1-1.5% of GDP and to rise to 5% by the 2040s, potentially pushing millions more Ethiopians into poverty ( press release ).

The new analysis also points to opportunities for growth and increasing prosperity from climate-informed development policies. These are especially visible in agriculture where, with the support of reforms, Ethiopia can potentially shift from being a net importer of agricultural commodities to generating sizable surpluses of as much as 20% (relative to domestic demand), with climate change, especially under potentially warmer and wetter conditions, increasing these surpluses to 25%.

Last Updated: Oct 08, 2024

The World Bank Group’s (WBG) strategic focus is to assist Ethiopia in forging a more inclusive and sustainable growth path, supporting the objectives of the Home-Grown Economic Reform Agenda and the current 10-Year Development Plan. The WBG supports a more spatially inclusive approach to development, one that leverages national programs to provide quality services to all areas of the country.

The WBG’s strategic interventions prioritize human capital development, with a strong focus on expanding basic education, improving youth employment, and enhancing access to markets. These efforts are designed to foster structural transformation and equip Ethiopia’s workforce for the future. Additionally, the WBG is working to enhance resilience and social inclusiveness by targeting gender equality, expanding social safety nets, and investing in sustainable landscapes, while advancing the Early Years Agenda, a critical component of Ethiopia’s long-term growth strategy.

As of September 30, 2024, the World Bank’s portfolio in Ethiopia consists of 44 active projects, with a total commitment of $16.33 billion, complemented by $1.14 billion in trust fund financing. These projects span critical sectors, including macro-economic reforms to support sustainable growth, and initiatives for conflict-affected communities and internally displaced persons (IDPs). Key areas of focus include agriculture, sustainable land management, healthcare, education, water, and sanitation, as well as energy, transportation, digital development, and trade logistics.

The International Development Association (IDA) is Ethiopia’s largest provider of official development assistance. IDA not only offers substantial financial support but also provides evidence-based analytics and advisory services to enhance decision-making and improve policy implementation. Since 2000, IDA has committed more than $30 billion to 167 projects in Ethiopia, with flagship programs such as: Development Policy Operations (DPOs) supporting policy reforms, Low Lands Livelihoods Resilience Project and Agriculture Growth Projects, Response–Recovery–Resilience for Conflict-Affected Communities Project, Locust Emergency Response and Flood Management Projects, Human Capital Development and Digital Foundations Projects, along with critical investments in energy, water, and transportation. Through these wide-ranging initiatives, the WB is driving structural transformation, improving living standards, and ensuring that Ethiopia builds a resilient, inclusive economy capable of withstanding future challenges.

A robust private sector is pivotal to Ethiopia’s economic future, with the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) playing crucial roles in facilitating private sector-led growth. Their efforts support both local enterprises and foreign investments, creating a more dynamic and competitive market environment that can drive Ethiopia's development agenda forward.

IFC has a committed portfolio of $328 million across 10 investment projects in Ethiopia and a well-diversified advisory portfolio of $34.5 million across 22 projects covering IFC’s three industry groups: Financial Industries, Manufacturing Agribusiness and Services, and Infrastructure and Natural Resources. IFC is financing projects in cement, the cut flower sector, packed food, coffee, poultry, health, telecoms, mining, and trade finance. Projects in IFCs pipeline span across infrastructure, manufacturing, livestock, edible oil, and the financial sector.

IFC’s strategy in Ethiopia focuses on sectors that can address binding constraints to growth and the need for inclusion, sustainability, and job creation, along with advisory services to help improve the investment climate, trade policies, and gender disparities. A new IFC country strategy for Ethiopia is being planned for fiscal year 2025. IFC intends to continue playing a critical role in creating markets and crowding in private capital to support private sector growth in the country.

MIGA is actively supporting foreign investors in Ethiopia through its political risk insurance product, with a gross outstanding exposure of $1.15 billion as of end-August 2024. Ethiopia ranks as the seventh largest host country in MIGA’s portfolio and the largest host country in Africa. Currently, MIGA is supporting five projects across the telecommunications, manufacturing, and energy sectors, which include the first privately owned telecommunications network that was granted the second unified telecommunication service license in Ethiopia; a manufacturing and distribution of edible sunflower oil and soya bean oil plant; the establishment of a flour processing and pasta manufacturing plant; a manufacturing and distribution of laundry soaps, detergents, and personal care cleaning products plant; and the development of a 150 MW geothermal power plant.

As part of the new World Bank Group Guarantees Platform, which will be housed at MIGA, MIGA will also leverage deeper collaboration across the World Bank Group to de-risk foreign investment, paying close attention to projects that support climate finance and boost job creation.

Education IDA’s support for the education sector—including through the  General Education Quality Improvement Program for Equity  —has helped Ethiopia expand access to quality pre-primary and primary education over the last ten years. There has been significant expansion of the general education system, increasing from 7.1 million students in 2000 to 26 million in 2020. As a result, net enrollment rates in primary education and secondary education have increased to about 95% and 25%, respectively. In addition, IDA supports the technical and vocational education and training, and higher education sub-sectors through its regional projects — e.g.,  East Africa Skills for Transformation and Regional Integration Project  — to increase access and improve quality of Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) programs in selected Regional Flagship TVET Institutes and to support regional integration in East Africa; and the  Eastern and Southern Africa Higher Education Centers of Excellence Project —to strengthen selected institutions to deliver quality postgraduate education and build collaborative research capacity in the regional priority areas.

Water and Sanitation IDA’s support to the water and sanitation sector has helped the country make significant progress in improving services in the past decade. More than 60 million people in Ethiopia now live within 1 kilometer of an improved drinking water source. Open defecation rates fell by 63%, which was the largest decrease observed in the world. With the rapid increase in population, however, around 60 million people still lack access to basic drinking water and over 112 million have no access to at least basic sanitation, and over 22 million people are still practicing open defecation.

The OWNP Consolidated WASH Account Project plays a catalytic role in sector financing, attracting $196.89 million of finance from six other donors and international financial institutions into a pooled fund that is managed under the World Bank’s oversight. Additionally, the program leverages $93 million of matching fund from the Government of Ethiopia. OWNP-CWA creates a unique platform for coordinating WASH sectors and harmonizing development partners in the sector. It focuses on enhancing climate resilience and access to water supply service, quality, and sustainability, as well as providing equitable access to improved urban and institutional sanitation services – targeting 4.4 million people with improved water supply and 4.75 million with improved sanitation.

Social Protection and Jobs The Ethiopia Social Protection and Jobs (SPJ) portfolio promotes human development and economic inclusion of the poor for sustainable poverty reduction and improving human capital development. SPJ has been at the forefront of responding to the various crises that have struck Ethiopia over the last couple of years.

The Strengthen Ethiopia’s Adaptative Safety Net (SEASN) Project ($1.1 billion IDA) has been instrumental in supporting the government’s fifth phase of the rural Productive Safety Net Program. Nearly 8 million individuals in 489 districts are benefiting from the program. Key impacts of the project include:

• Income generation and climate resilience : 6.8 million beneficiaries have participated in public works activities, enabling them to earn a living while enhancing their communities’ climate change adaptation and resilience.
• Public works activities have significantly increased soil health : Increased soil carbon stocks, resulting in up to 3.5 times higher critical macronutrient concentrations in the soil.
• Financial inclusion : Over 1.1 million beneficiaries have opened bank accounts.
• Enhancement of human capital outcomes: Programs in early childhood development, nutritional improvements, and promoting sustainable livelihoods through economic inclusion activities.

The Urban Productive Safety Net and Jobs Project (UPSNJP)  is helping to improve the income of the poor and promote labor market inclusion of disadvantaged youth, including refugees, Internally Displaced Persons, and their hosting communities. The project covers 1.75 million people with various vulnerabilities. It is operational in 88 cities. Specific results include:

• 519,955 poor urban residents and 75,000 refugees in eight refugee camps, have accessed employment opportunities through the public works program; accompanied by financial and business skills training and a one-time grant to support their livelihood activities.
• 770,397, Internally Displaced People in Amhara, Tigray, Oromya, and other areas received cash transfer and reintegration/ relocation support.
• 62,000 youth (high school dropouts) were supported with digital skills training and apprenticeship with private firms.
• 160,478 people who are unable to work received direct income support and service linkages such as CBHI. The public works activities improved the environment and neighborhood cleanliness of communities.  

Transport IDA’s current transport sector portfolio includes $1.6 billion in commitments. Over the past three decades, IDA's support has evolved from emergency road rehabilitation in the 1990s to improving strategic road networks, enhancing regional connectivity for trade, economic transformation, job creation, and ensuring rural connectivity for food security. IDA has contributed nearly $4 billion, collaborating with partners like the African Development Bank, European Union, and bilateral partners to expand and maintain the road network, build climate resilience, enhance safety, boost road agency safeguards, expand the expressway network, promote logistics efficiency, support railway reforms, and improve urban mobility. The road network has grown from 27,000 km in 1997 to 166,000 km today, benefiting the entire country. This strategic investment, combined with institutional capacity building, has significantly contributed to Ethiopia's economic development, with one World Bank study citing a 0.6% annual contribution to GDP.

Several development partners are active in Ethiopia and international partners remain committed to the harmonization of development support efforts.

Currently, Canada and the African Development Bank are the rotating co-chairs of the Development Partners Group (DPG), the main forum for donor coordination in Ethiopia. Through the DPG, including its sub-working groups, efforts are made to advance implementation of commitments, including joint economic and sector work (much of the WBG’s major analytical work is already prepared with its partners) and joint missions.

The launch of the  Expressway Development Support Project  (EDSP) marked a historic moment in the WBG’s partnership with Ethiopia, as it is the first project co-financed with China EXIM Bank and South Korea EXIM Bank. The project brings together traditional and non-traditional development partners to work on a single project, with standardized design, safeguards, and joint implementation support.

The World Bank is coordinating with the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS), which has been contracted by the Government of Ethiopia to implement the  Response-Recovery-Resilience for Conflict-Affected Communities in Ethiopia Project  in areas of high risk of conflict. The project supports efforts to address the immediate needs of communities, rehabilitate infrastructure destroyed by conflict, and increase community resilience to the impacts of conflict in a sustainable manner.

The WBG maintains close partnerships in Ethiopia to support development for forcibly displaced populations and vulnerable communities hosting them. With bilateral and UN partners, the WBG supports the Government of Ethiopia in augmenting sustainable services and support to these hosting areas.

The WBG has taken the lead in developing a set of multi-donor programs to reduce transaction costs, aligning support with the country’s decentralized model, and enhancing the predictability of aid. These instruments allow for large-scale leveraging of IDA support. Such approaches are used in several IDA-supported programs including:  Enhancing Shared Prosperity through Equitable Services ; the Productive Safety Nets Program; the Health sector SDG Pooled Fund PFR, the Education GEQIP-E project, the Water Supply, Sanitation, and Hygiene Universal Access Program; the Sustainable Land Management Project II; and the Agricultural Growth Program II. There are also pipeline projects in Health and Education which will similarly pool donor funds.

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